Improving Storm Intensity Prediction

Storm events, including tropical cyclones, typhoons, hurricanes (‘storms’ in this survey) can cause significant damage to societies and economies. Track prediction (where they’re going) has seen much more improvement in accuracy than intensity prediction over the last decades. This survey will help us estimate the validity of improving intensity prediction, as well as directions to do so, by asking the people most relying on storm forecasting.

This short survey takes only 4-5 min to complete. We truly appreciate the input from your experience and expertise.

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* 1. What is your primary role in the weather forecasting community or your profession?

First Responder

Government and Policy Making Professional

Marine/Naval Professional (including offshore)

Disaster Management Professional

Transportation and Logistics Professional (shipping, railway, public transit...)

Meteorologist

Climate Scientist

Insurance and Risk Assessment Specialist

Aviation Industry Professional

Construction Professional

Utility and Infrastructure Professional (energy, water, telecom...)

Agriculture and Farming Professional

Other (please specify)

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* 2. How many years of experience do you have with storm forecasting or response?

Less than 2 years

2-5 years

6-10 years

More than 10 years

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* 3. Which storm prediction systems do you currently use? Select all that apply.

Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Fiji Meteorological Service

Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)

Indonesian Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)

Météo-France

New Zealand Meteorological Service

Papua New Guinea National Weather Service

StormGeo

Tomorrow.io

U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC)

Other (please specify)

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* 4. How satisfied are you with the accuracy of current storm intensity predictions?

Very Satisfied

Satisfied

Neutral

Dissatisfied

Very Dissatisfied

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* 5. How important is it for you to have more accurate storm intensity predictions?

Extremely Important

Very Important

Moderately Important

Slightly Important

Not Important

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* 6. How likely would you be to adopt a new storm intensity prediction system if it proved to be more accurate?

Very Likely

Likely

Neutral

Unlikely

Very Unlikely

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* 7. Evaluate the following features for a storm prediction system from 1 (not valuable) to 5 (extremely valuable)

	1	2	3	4	5
Accurately predicting the path of the storm	Accurately predicting the path of the storm 1	Accurately predicting the path of the storm 2	Accurately predicting the path of the storm 3	Accurately predicting the path of the storm 4	Accurately predicting the path of the storm 5
Accurately predicting the intensity of the storm	Accurately predicting the intensity of the storm 1	Accurately predicting the intensity of the storm 2	Accurately predicting the intensity of the storm 3	Accurately predicting the intensity of the storm 4	Accurately predicting the intensity of the storm 5
How early can the storm be predicted	How early can the storm be predicted 1	How early can the storm be predicted 2	How early can the storm be predicted 3	How early can the storm be predicted 4	How early can the storm be predicted 5
Alerts tailored to specific industries or regions	Alerts tailored to specific industries or regions 1	Alerts tailored to specific industries or regions 2	Alerts tailored to specific industries or regions 3	Alerts tailored to specific industries or regions 4	Alerts tailored to specific industries or regions 5
Real-time updates	Real-time updates 1	Real-time updates 2	Real-time updates 3	Real-time updates 4	Real-time updates 5
Integration with mobile apps or other platforms	Integration with mobile apps or other platforms 1	Integration with mobile apps or other platforms 2	Integration with mobile apps or other platforms 3	Integration with mobile apps or other platforms 4	Integration with mobile apps or other platforms 5
Probability forecasts	Probability forecasts 1	Probability forecasts 2	Probability forecasts 3	Probability forecasts 4	Probability forecasts 5

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* 8. What spatial resolution would be most useful for your needs?

Less than 1 km

1-3 km

4-10 km

More than 10 km

I don't know

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* 9. How far in advance would you need storm intensity predictions to be helpful?

12-24 hours

24-48 hours

48-72 hours

More than 72 hours

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* 10. What is your acceptable margin of error for wind speed predictions?

Within 5 knots (2.57 m/s)

Within 10 knots (5.14 m/s)

Within 15 knots (7.72 m/s)

Within 20 knots (10.29 m/s)

I don't know

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* 11. What is your acceptable margin of error for central pressure predictions?

Within 5 mb/hPa

Within 10 mb/hPa

Within 15 mb/hPa

Within 20 mb/hPa

Within 25 mb/hPa

Within 30 mb/hPa

I don't know

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* 12. What features or improvements would you like to see in a new storm prediction system?

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* 13. Would you be willing to pay for a system providing highly accurate storm intensity predictions?

Yes

Maybe, depending on the cost

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* 14. Would you agree to be contacted for follow-up questions?

Yes (please provide your email address)

Improving Storm Intensity Prediction

Question Title

* 1. What is your primary role in the weather forecasting community or your profession?

Question Title

* 2. How many years of experience do you have with storm forecasting or response?

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* 3. Which storm prediction systems do you currently use? Select all that apply.

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* 4. How satisfied are you with the accuracy of current storm intensity predictions?

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* 5. How important is it for you to have more accurate storm intensity predictions?

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* 6. How likely would you be to adopt a new storm intensity prediction system if it proved to be more accurate?

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* 7. Evaluate the following features for a storm prediction system from 1 (not valuable) to 5 (extremely valuable)

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* 8. What spatial resolution would be most useful for your needs?

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* 9. How far in advance would you need storm intensity predictions to be helpful?

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* 10. What is your acceptable margin of error for wind speed predictions?

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* 11. What is your acceptable margin of error for central pressure predictions?

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* 12. What features or improvements would you like to see in a new storm prediction system?

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* 13. Would you be willing to pay for a system providing highly accurate storm intensity predictions?

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* 14. Would you agree to be contacted for follow-up questions?

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* 15. Please share any other comments and suggestions you have below: