A clear majority (58%) in a September New York Times|SurveyMonkey poll now say the Trump administration’s escalation of tariffs with China will be a bad thing for the U.S., up from 52% in June. The percent saying tariffs will be a good thing for the country decreased correspondingly, from 44% to 38%.
Though Republicans have indicated widespread support for President Trump’s tariffs, that support is weakening. In June, 80% of Republicans and GOP leaners said the Trump administration’s increased tariffs between the U.S. and China will be “good for the United States.” This month, GOP support has dropped six percentage points, while Democrats and independents continue to be negative on the policy front.
A clear majority of Americans (61%) see a recession as likely over the next 12 months, similar to the levels of trepidation to start the year. Democrats lead the charge in negativity, with 84% expecting a recession, up two points from January. Also higher is the proportion of Democrats (now 75%) who foresee “periods of widespread unemployment or depression” in the next five years.
On a similar question just 12% of Democrats say they expect business conditions in the country to be very or somewhat good over the next year, down from 17% last month. Republicans’ views, on the other hand, have held steady, with 70% in August and 69% in September expecting good business conditions for the coming 12 months. Similarly, just 21% of Democrats now say they expect “continuous good times economically” over the next five years, from from 27% in August. Republicans have only seen a negligible two percentage point decrease in the last month, from 80% to 78%.
For more detailed results, click through the interactive toplines below.
Read more about our polling methodology here.
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 Jobs and the economy 20%23%17%Health care 19%16%22%The environment 17%16%18%Immigration 15%17%12%Education 9%7%11%Other (please specify) 9%9%9%Terrorism 5%5%5%Foreign policy 3%4%3%No answer 2%2%2%Question wording: Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?Survey dates: –Would you say that you and your family are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 Better off 36%42%30%Same 43%40%46%Worse off 19%17%22%No answer 2%2%2%Question wording: Would you say that you and your family are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?Survey dates: –Now looking ahead - do you think that a year from now you and your family will be better off financially, worse off financially, or just about the same as now?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 Better off 41%45%38%Same 40%38%42%Worse off 17%16%18%No answer 2%2%2%Question wording: Now looking ahead - do you think that a year from now you and your family will be better off financially, worse off financially, or just about the same as now?Survey dates: –Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole - do you think that during the next 12 months we'll have good or bad times financially?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 Very good 17%22%13%Somewhat good 19%21%17%Mixed 35%31%40%Somewhat bad 19%18%20%Very bad 7%7%8%No answer 2%2%2%Question wording: Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole - do you think that during the next 12 months we'll have good or bad times financially?Survey dates: –Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely to take place in the next five years for the country as a whole:
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 Continuous good times economically 47%54%40%Periods of widespread unemployment or depression 48%41%54%No answer 5%5%5%Question wording: Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely to take place in the next five years for the country as a whole:Survey dates: –Thinking about the big things people buy for their homes - such as furniture, a stove, a television... Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 Good 34%40%28%Mixed 49%46%52%Bad 14%11%17%No answer 3%3%3%Question wording: Thinking about the big things people buy for their homes - such as furniture, a stove, a television... Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?Survey dates: –As you may know, periods of economic growth are followed by periods of recession. Do you think a recession over the next year is...
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 NET Likely 61%58%64%Very likely 19%19%20%Somewhat likely 42%39%45%NET Unlikely 35%39%32%Somewhat unlikely 24%26%22%Very unlikely 11%13%10%No answer 4%3%4%Question wording: As you may know, periods of economic growth are followed by periods of recession. Do you think a recession over the next year is...Survey dates: –As you may know, the Trump administration has recently increased tariffs or fees on imported goods from China, and China has increased tariffs on American goods. Do you think increased tariffs between the U.S. and China will be good or bad for the United States?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 Good for the United States 38%44%32%Bad for the United States 58%53%63%No answer 4%3%5%Question wording: As you may know, the Trump administration has recently increased tariffs or fees on imported goods from China, and China has increased tariffs on American goods. Do you think increased tariffs between the U.S. and China will be good or bad for the United States?Survey dates: –In the next 12 months, do you think President Trump’s trade policies will cause the prices of goods and services in the U.S. to rise, to fall, or do you think they will not have an effect on prices?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 More likely to rise 65%64%66%More likely to fall 15%15%15%No effect 16%18%14%No answer 4%3%5%Question wording: In the next 12 months, do you think President Trump’s trade policies will cause the prices of goods and services in the U.S. to rise, to fall, or do you think they will not have an effect on prices?Survey dates: –In the next 12 months, do you think President Trump’s trade policies will cause more jobs to be brought back to the U.S. from other countries, more jobs to be sent from the U.S. to other countries, or do you think they will not have an effect on jobs?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 More likely to be brought back 38%43%34%More likely to be sent to other countries 34%29%39%No effect 23%25%22%No answer 4%3%5%Question wording: In the next 12 months, do you think President Trump’s trade policies will cause more jobs to be brought back to the U.S. from other countries, more jobs to be sent from the U.S. to other countries, or do you think they will not have an effect on jobs?Survey dates: –Do you think President Trump's trade policies will be:
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 Helpful in both the long-term and short-term 22%23%20%Helpful in the long-term but harmful in the short-term 23%28%18%Helpful in the short-term but harmful in the long-term 12%11%13%Not helpful at all 40%35%45%No answer 4%3%5%Question wording: Do you think President Trump's trade policies will be:Survey dates: –Now, thinking about all of your investments, including retirement savings at work, do you currently have money invested in stocks or mutual funds?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,740 1,400 1,340 Yes 51%57%45%No 46%41%51%No answer 3%3%4%Question wording: Now, thinking about all of your investments, including retirement savings at work, do you currently have money invested in stocks or mutual funds?Survey dates: –
Question text:
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?
Would you say that you and your family are better off or worse off financially than you were a year ago?
Now looking ahead - do you think that a year from now you and your family will be better off financially, worse off financially, or just about the same as now?
Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole - do you think that during the next 12 months we'll have good or bad times financially?
Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely to take place in the next five years for the country as a whole:
Thinking about the big things people buy for their homes - such as furniture, a stove, a television… Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?
As you may know, periods of economic growth are followed by periods of recession. Do you think a recession over the next year is…
As you may know, the Trump administration has recently increased tariffs or fees on imported goods from China, and China has increased tariffs on American goods. Do you think increased tariffs between the U.S. and China will be good or bad for the United States?
In the next 12 months, do you think President Trump’s trade policies will cause the prices of goods and services in the U.S. to rise, to fall, or do you think they will not have an effect on prices?
In the next 12 months, do you think President Trump’s trade policies will cause more jobs to be brought back to the U.S. from other countries, more jobs to be sent from the U.S. to other countries, or do you think they will not have an effect on jobs?
Do you think President Trump's trade policies will be: Helpful in both the long-term and short-term/ Helpful in the long-term but harmful in the short-term/ Helpful in the short-term but harmful in the long-term/ Not helpful at all
Now, thinking about all of your investments, including retirement savings at work, do you currently have money invested in stocks or mutual funds?
