Key findings:
- Concern over inflation renews among small business owners
- Main Street sees little impact from stock market highs, with fears over being left behind by Wall Street
- Inflation and the economy are the leading issues for the upcoming election, but younger and older business owners diverge on foreign policy and social issues as key issues for the upcoming election
- Small business confidence remains steady despite renewed concerns of inflation
Concern over inflation renews among small business owners
After a disappointing March inflation report, optimism over inflation loses steam, falling back to levels seen in early 2023. One in four (24%) small business owners say inflation has reached a peak, down from 29% the previous quarter, and on par with 22% in Q2 of 2023. Three quarters (75%) expect inflation to continue to rise, up from 69% the previous quarter.
Confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to control inflation also falls back down to previous levels: 31% are ‘very or somewhat confident’, down from 35% the previous quarter and on par with 31% from Q2 of last year. Despite declining confidence in overcoming inflation, small business owners still remain hopeful about the state of the economy, with 27% saying that the economy is ‘excellent or good’, similar to 28% last quarter, and higher than 21% the same time last year.
More than one in three (37%) of small business owners cite inflation as the biggest threat to their business, nearly three times higher than consumer demand (13%), labor shortage (11%), supply chain disruptions (10%), or interest rates (10%).
Main Street sees little impact from stock market highs, with fears over being left behind by Wall Street
Recent stock market gains see very little fanfare from small business owners: less than one in five (17%) say this year’s stock market performance has had a positive impact on their business, while the majority (64%) say they have experienced no particular impact. Most small businesses have little confidence in today’s business policies, with nearly three in four (73%) saying that such policies today favor large companies over small businesses: Only one in ten (8%) say business policies favor small businesses over large companies, and 15% think business policies have no particular bias toward either side. Democratic and Republican small business owners find rare common ground with this sentiment:
- 79% of Republican small business owners say business policies today favor large companies over small businesses, compared with 71% of Democrat small business owners and those who politically identify as Independent
Most small business owners fear being ignored or left behind by business policies today: 86% say they are ‘very or somewhat concerned’ about having no voice in business policy-making. This fear is shared across political lines: 91% of Republican business owners are concerned, compared with 88% of Independents and 82% of Democrats.
Inflation and the economy are the leading issues for the upcoming election, but younger and older business owners diverge on foreign policy and social issues as key issues for the upcoming election
Three in five small business owners overall cite inflation (63%) and economic growth (61%) as the top issues for deciding on who to vote for in the upcoming presidential election, ahead of tax policy (54%), safety and crime (53%), foreign policy (49%), and healthcare costs (47%). While these two issues are among the leading issues across all age groups, issues see notable divergence between business owners under 35 and older business owners: social issues and foreign policy.
- More than half (56%) of business owners under 35 cite social issues as their top issue when it comes to the presidential vote (second only to inflation and interest rates (66%), compared to 39% of business owners overall.
- Business owners under 35 are much less interested in foreign policy: only 36% cite it as a top issue, compared to 49% of business owners overall.
Small business confidence remains steady despite renewed concerns of inflation
Small Business Confidence remains stable at 47 out of 100, on par with 47 in Q1 of 2024, and 1 point higher than Q2 of last year (at 46).
Confidence in President Biden remains shaky, sliding back after an increase the previous quarter, with 31% approving (down from 33% in Q1) and 68% disapproving (up from 66% in Q1) of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president.
Small Business Confidence among Biden’s supporters remains steady, with those who approve of the job Biden is doing as president reporting an overall confidence score of 61, identical to the previous quarter but still up from 55 in Q3 of 2023. Confidence among those who disapprove of Biden’s presidency cools down to a score of 39, down slightly from 40 the previous quarter.
Read more about our polling methodology here.
Click through all the results in the interactive toplines below:
