The CNBC|SurveyMonkey Small Business Confidence Index continues to rebound, inching up to an index score of 47 out of 100. Here are some key highlights from our latest survey of more than 3,000 small business owners, fielded between January 22 to February 1, 2024.
Optimism surrounding inflation and the economy increases, but concerns over inflation continue to linger
More than one in three (35%) small business owners express confidence in the Federal Reserve’s ability to control inflation, up from 28% the previous quarter, and highest across the last two years. Nearly three in ten (29%) believe inflation has reached a peak, similar to the previous quarter (28%), up from 23% in Q1 of 2023, and also reaching its highest point across the last two years.
Optimism surrounding the economy is also at an all time high (since we began tracking since Q2 of 2022), with 28% of small business owners saying that the current state of the economy is ‘excellent’ or ‘good’, up from 23% the previous quarter, and 18% in the first quarter of 2023. Inflation, however, remains a leading concern for small business owners: 31% say inflation is the biggest risk to their businesses currently, more than double all other issues, including consumer demand (13%), interest rates (12%), labor shortage (11%), and supply chain disruptions (9%).
Small business owners show broad support for minimum wage increases in their state despite uncertainty over the impact on their business
The majority (61%) of small business owners support a minimum wage increase in their state, but partisanship exposes a divide between parties:
- 44% of Republican small business owners support a minimum wage increase, compared with 67% of Independents, and 87% of Democrats
Support also differs by industry and type of business:
- 70% of small business owners within arts, entertainment, and recreation support a minimum wage increase.
- 67% of those with a business in professional, scientific, or technical services support an increase.
- 44% of those with a business in manufacturing support an increase.
- 42% of those with a business in forestry, fishing, hunting, and agriculture support an increase.
- 76% of small business owners with a nonprofit support a minimum wage increase, compared to 41% of those who own a C Corporation and 50% of those who own an S Corporation.
Small business owners are split on the impact of a minimum wage on their ability to hire new employees: half (50%) say an increase would likely make it more difficult to hire new employees, while 49% do not expect any impact.
Only one in five (19%) believe that a minimum wage increase would help their businesses, while twice as many believe that an increase would cause harm (38%) or have no impact (41%).
Managing inflation, tax policy, and economic growth are the leading issues for small business owners when it comes to the 2024 presidential election
One in three (31%) of small business owners say inflation is the biggest risk to their business, more than twice as high as the next most important issues: consumer demand (13%) and interest rates (12%).
60% of small business owners say inflation and interest rates are their top issue when it comes to deciding who to vote for in next year’s presidential election, along with economic growth (60%), followed by tax policy (51%). Top issues for small business owners see a partisan divide:
- Inflation and interest rates (74%), economic growth (70%), tax policies (64%), and safety and crime (64%) are the leading issues for Republican small business owners.
- Healthcare costs (57%) and economic growth (50%) are the leading issues for Democratic small business owners, while less than 4 in 10 cite inflation and interest rates (37%) and tax policies (29%) as top issues.
Small business confidence overall and in Biden both continue to rebound
Small Business Confidence inches up to 47 out of 100, up from 46 in Q4 of 2023, and 2 points higher than Q1 of last year (at 45). The biggest drivers of this increase in confidence were:
- An increase in the share of small business owners who expect a positive impact on their business due to changes across multiple areas, including government regulation, tax policy, trade policy, and immigration policy (all rising from 8% in Q4 of 2023 to 10% this quarter).
- An increase in the percentage of small business owners who expect a positive effect on their business due to changes in technological innovation (32% in Q4 of 2023 to 35% now).
Confidence in President Biden bounces back to levels seen throughout 2022 and 2023 (ranging between 31% to 34%), with 33% approving and 66% disapproving of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president.
Small Business Confidence among Biden’s supporters continue to trend upwards, with those who approve of the job Biden is doing as president reporting an overall confidence score of 61, up from 59 last quarter and 55 in Q3 of 2023. Those who disapprove of Biden’s presidency have an overall confidence score of 40, maintaining the new high of Biden’s presidency so far reached last quarter.
Read more about our polling methodology here.
Click through all the results in the interactive toplines below:
