For all the apparent polling momentum for Biden, anyone anticipating a vastly different electoral outcome this November has to contend with a stark reality: President Trump’s 2016 voters are solidly behind his re-election.
Despite months of upheaval, Trump’s 2016 coalition is undented and also fired up for the campaign ahead.
Not only are his 2016 voters overwhelmingly supporting this time around (96% indicate they’d vote for him over Biden), 70% strongly approve of the job he’s doing as president (93% overall approval), and 57% are “extremely excited” about voting for him in November. Contrast that to a scant 33% of 2016 Clinton voters who are that enthusiastic about voting for Biden this year.
This Axios-SurveyMonkey poll includes 2,121 voters who cast ballots for Trump four years ago, shows these voters laser focused on the economy and deeply opposed to the protests and political demonstrations that have taken place across the country since the killing of George Floyd.
Fully 50% of Trump voters single out jobs and the economy as the most critical set of issues right now, more than double the proportion of Biden voters so focused on these concerns. For Trump voters, no other issue reaches into double-digits.
Trump voters overwhelmingly oppose the protests and demonstrations that continue around the country, and do so strongly: by a factor of 10x, more say they “strongly oppose” than “strongly support” those expressions and actions (50% to 5%). They largely see the police as using not enough rather than too much force in dealing with looting and vandalizing businesses (77% say “not enough” vs. just 4% who say “too much”). While 78% of Biden voters perceive the police as using too much force on the protests more generally, just 12% of Trump agree with that assessment.
The drive to “defund police” also meets widespread opposition among Trump voters. Overall, 87% oppose reducing funding for police in favor of more funding social services like housing and mental health, including 77% who strongly oppose the idea.
The views of the broader movement also reveal that opinion among Trump voters is not monolithic: Asked about Black Lives Matter, 27% of Trump voters indicate favorable views (but just 9% very favorable), with 63% holding unfavorable ones (with 43% very unfavorable).
Nationally, widespread support for Black Lives Matter
The recent protests and the underlying movement for racial justice receive widespread support nationally, despite the opposition among Trump’s core supporters. More than half of the country (55%) says race relations in the U.S. are getting worse, with Blacks (64%) and Hispanics (63%) particularly apt to say things are deteriorating on this front.
A solid 62% nationwide say they support the protests and political demonstrations that have taken place since the killing of George Floyd. Although Blacks express the most support—a full 86% say they support the protests, including 69% who express strong support—majorities of people of every ethnicity say they support these protests, including whites (56%), Asians (68%), and Hispanics (66%).
Some 14% of people say they’ve attended one of these recent protests or political demonstrations that have taken place since the killing of George Floyd, with Blacks nearly three times as likely as whites to say they have done so (29% vs. 10%). For about half of Blacks (49%) and more than one third of whites (36%) who attended, this marked the first time they participated in a protest or political demonstration. Heading into the elections this fall, that increase in political activation may become important, particularly as the increase in people driven to take action is heavily skewed to the Democrats, and President Trump’s base of core supporters is so small.
Nearly half (46%) of Blacks say they are more involved in politics or causes in their community now than a year ago—significantly higher than the number of whites (30%), Hispanics (35%), or Asians (35%) who say the same. Democrats are about 1.5X as likely as Republicans to say they’re more involved now than last year (42% vs. 29%). Nearly six in 10 Blacks (59%), the highest of any group by race or ethnicity, say they are extremely or very hopeful that their involvement in politics and local causes will help affect real positive change in their community.
Overall, 51% say that encouraging people of color to vote in elections is the way to make the greatest difference for people of color in this country—that’s double the amount who say the most important change will be to recruit more people of color to run for office. Just 15% of people overall say that demonstrating or protesting will make the greatest difference for people of color in this country.
For full results, click through the interactive toplines below.
Read more about our polling methodology here.
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 Jobs and the economy 33%37%30%Health care 20%18%21%The environment 8%7%9%Education 8%7%9%Immigration 4%5%4%Terrorism 3%4%3%Foreign policy 2%2%1%Other (please specify) 20%18%21%No answer 2%1%2%Question wording: Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?Survey dates: –Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 NET approve 43%48%38%Strongly approve 28%32%24%Somewhat approve 15%16%14%NET disapprove 55%51%60%Somewhat disapprove 10%11%9%Strongly disapprove 46%40%50%No answer 2%1%2%Question wording: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?Survey dates: –Do you think race relations in the United States are getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 Getting better 15%17%14%Getting worse 55%51%58%Staying about the same 28%31%26%No answer 2%2%2%Question wording: Do you think race relations in the United States are getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?Survey dates: –Do you support or oppose the protests and political demonstrations that have taken place across the country since the killing of George Floyd?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 NET support 62%59%65%Strongly support 38%34%41%Somewhat support 24%25%23%NET oppose 36%39%33%Somewhat oppose 14%15%14%Strongly oppose 21%24%19%No answer 2%1%3%Question wording: Do you support or oppose the protests and political demonstrations that have taken place across the country since the killing of George Floyd?Survey dates: –Are the police generally using too much or not enough force when it comes to dealing with...-Looting or vandalizing businesses
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 Too much force 23%20%26%About the right amount of force 27%26%28%Not enough force 46%51%41%No answer 4%3%5%Question wording: Are the police generally using too much or not enough force when it comes to dealing with...-Looting or vandalizing businessesSurvey dates: –Are the police generally using too much or not enough force when it comes to dealing with...-Protests and political demonstrations
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 Too much force 48%47%50%About the right amount of force 36%37%35%Not enough force 13%14%11%No answer 3%2%4%Question wording: Are the police generally using too much or not enough force when it comes to dealing with...-Protests and political demonstrationsSurvey dates: –Do you support or oppose reducing the funding for the police in your community in order to fund an increase in social services for programs like housing and mental health?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 NET support 47%43%50%Strongly support 24%23%26%Somewhat support 22%20%24%NET oppose 51%56%47%Somewhat oppose 14%14%14%Strongly oppose 37%42%33%No answer 2%1%3%Question wording: Do you support or oppose reducing the funding for the police in your community in order to fund an increase in social services for programs like housing and mental health?Survey dates: –Have you attended one of the protests or political demonstrations that have taken place since the killing of George Floyd?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 Yes 14%14%13%No 85%84%85%No answer 2%1%2%Question wording: Have you attended one of the protests or political demonstrations that have taken place since the killing of George Floyd?Survey dates: –Was this the first time you participated in a protest or political demonstration?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 846 340 506 Yes 42%43%41%No 57%56%59%No answer 1%0%1%Question wording: Was this the first time you participated in a protest or political demonstration?Survey dates: –Have any of the following ever happened to you personally? (Please select all that apply)
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 Been pulled over while driving 57%63%51%Been treated unfairly in hiring, pay, or promotion 29%28%29%Received poorer service than others at restaurants or stores 29%29%28%Been subject to racial slurs or jokes 29%31%26%Been followed while shopping 28%26%29%Been stopped and searched by a police officer 22%32%12%Faced threatening behavior from a police officer 18%23%13%Faced physical violence from a police officer 7%10%4%None of the above 23%19%27%No answer 2%2%2%Question wording: Have any of the following ever happened to you personally? (Please select all that apply)Survey dates: –Which of the following social movements do you support? (Select all that apply).
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 Black Lives Matter 47%41%53%Pro-choice 36%30%42%LGBTQ 36%28%42%#MeToo 31%25%37%Pro-life 25%25%24%Feminism 24%18%30%Time’s Up 9%7%11%Tea Party 8%11%5%Antifa 5%6%4%Minutemen 2%4%1%Alt-Right 1%2%1%None of these 22%28%18%No answer 3%2%4%Question wording: Which of the following social movements do you support? (Select all that apply).Survey dates: –Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following?-Black Lives Matter
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 NET favorable 62%57%67%Very favorable 39%33%44%Somewhat favorable 23%24%22%NET unfavorable 27%33%22%Somewhat unfavorable 10%12%9%Very unfavorable 17%21%13%Don’t know enough to say 8%8%8%No answer 3%2%4%Question wording: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following?-Black Lives MatterSurvey dates: –Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following?-Defund the Police
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 NET favorable 34%32%36%Very favorable 15%14%17%Somewhat favorable 18%18%19%NET unfavorable 53%58%48%Somewhat unfavorable 12%12%12%Very unfavorable 41%46%36%Don’t know enough to say 11%8%13%No answer 3%2%3%Question wording: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following?-Defund the PoliceSurvey dates: –Compared to last year, are you more or less involved in politics or causes in your community?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 More involved 34%33%34%Less involved 12%12%12%About as involved 52%53%51%No answer 2%2%3%Question wording: Compared to last year, are you more or less involved in politics or causes in your community?Survey dates: –How hopeful are you that being involved in politics or causes in your community will affect real positive change?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 NET hopeful 36%33%39%Extremely hopeful 16%16%17%Very hopeful 20%17%22%Somewhat hopeful 33%33%33%Not too hopeful 17%19%15%Not hopeful at all 11%12%9%No answer 3%2%3%Question wording: How hopeful are you that being involved in politics or causes in your community will affect real positive change?Survey dates: –Which do you think will make the greatest difference for people of color in this country?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 Recruiting more people of color to run for office 24%23%25%Encouraging people of color to vote in elections 51%53%50%Demonstrating or protesting about issues that impact people of color 15%14%16%No answer 10%11%10%Question wording: Which do you think will make the greatest difference for people of color in this country?Survey dates: –If the 2020 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 Joe Biden, the Democrat 45%41%49%Donald Trump, the Republican 37%42%32%Would not vote 14%15%14%No answer 4%3%4%Question wording: If the 2020 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?Survey dates: –2020 Vote Net
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 5,666 2,440 3,226 Joe Biden, the Democrat 53%48%57%Donald Trump, the Republican 43%49%38%No answer 4%3%5%Question wording: 2020 Vote NetSurvey dates: –In the 2016 election, did you vote for:
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 6,275 2,708 3,567 Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 35%30%40%Donald Trump, the Republican 33%36%29%Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 3%5%2%Jill Stein, the Green Party 2%2%2%Did not vote 23%25%22%No answer 4%3%5%Question wording: In the 2016 election, did you vote for:Survey dates: –How excited were you to vote for Donald Trump for president in 2016?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,121 1,104 1,017 NET excited 67%68%66%Extremely excited 45%45%45%Very excited 22%24%20%Somewhat excited 18%19%18%Not so excited 10%9%11%Not excited at all 3%3%3%No answer 1%0%3%Question wording: How excited were you to vote for Donald Trump for president in 2016?Survey dates: –How excited are you to vote for Donald Trump for president in 2020?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 2,296 1,191 1,105 NET excited 70%70%69%Extremely excited 53%53%52%Very excited 17%17%17%Somewhat excited 15%15%14%Not so excited 8%8%8%Not excited at all 3%3%3%No answer 5%4%6%Question wording: How excited are you to vote for Donald Trump for president in 2020?Survey dates: –How excited are you to vote for Joe Biden for president in 2020?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 3,179 1,180 1,999 NET excited 46%44%48%Extremely excited 28%25%29%Very excited 18%18%19%Somewhat excited 29%28%29%Not so excited 17%19%16%Not excited at all 8%9%7%No answer 0%0%0%Question wording: How excited are you to vote for Joe Biden for president in 2020?Survey dates: –In your view, what's the single most important attribute for Joe Biden's (2020) vice presidential running mate to have?
Gender Answer Total Male Female Unweighted N 3,179 1,180 1,999 Experience as an executive, such as serving as governor of a state or mayor of a city 14%13%15%Brings racial and ethnic diversity to the Democratic ticket 23%22%24%Represents the future of the Democratic Party 17%18%17%Brings ideological balance to the Democratic ticket 14%13%15%Has proven appeal to swing voters 11%13%10%Experience as a legislator 6%6%7%Other (please specify) 12%14%11%No answer 2%1%3%Question wording: In your view, what's the single most important attribute for Joe Biden's (2020) vice presidential running mate to have?Survey dates: –
Question text:
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
Do you think race relations in the United States are getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
Do you support or oppose the protests and political demonstrations that have taken place across the country since the killing of George Floyd?
Are the police generally using too much or not enough force when it comes to dealing with…-Looting or vandalizing businesses
Are the police generally using too much or not enough force when it comes to dealing with…-Protests and political demonstrations
Do you support or oppose reducing the funding for the police in your community in order to fund an increase in social services for programs like housing and mental health?
Have you attended one of the protests or political demonstrations that have taken place since the killing of George Floyd?
Was this the first time you participated in a protest or political demonstration?
Have any of the following ever happened to you personally? (Please select all that apply)
Which of the following social movements do you support? (Select all that apply).
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following?-Black Lives Matter
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of each of the following?-Defund the Police
Compared to last year, are you more or less involved in politics or causes in your community?
How hopeful are you that being involved in politics or causes in your community will affect real positive change?
Which do you think will make the greatest difference for people of color in this country?
If the 2020 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?
In the 2016 election, did you vote for:
How excited were you to vote for Donald Trump for president in 2016?
How excited are you to vote for Donald Trump for president in 2020?
How excited are you to vote for Joe Biden for president in 2020?
In your view, what's the single most important attribute for Joe Biden's (2020) vice presidential running mate to have?
