Key findings:
- The vast majority of Americans support Biden’s decision not to run for a second term, although sentiment toward his endorsement of Kamala Harris varies along party lines.
- More think that Biden’s decision to end his campaign will benefit the Democrats more than Republicans.
- A sizeable minority of Democrats remain uncertain about Kamala Harris’ chances against Donald Trump in the upcoming election.
- Americans are divided on the impact of Kamala Harris’ gender and ethnic background on her chances of becoming president.
- Americans think Harris will have a better chance of winning with a white male running mate, while more think that choosing a woman will hurt her chances.
The vast majority of Americans support Biden’s decision not to run for a second term, although sentiment toward his endorsement of Kamala Harris varies along party lines
Nearly nine in ten (87%) of Americans strongly or somewhat agree with Biden’s decision to end his campaign, with similar levels of alignment from both Republicans (88%) and Democrats (92%). Independents are slightly less supportive at 76%. While there is broad agreement on Biden’s decision, Republicans and Democrats hold divergent attitudes toward the president’s endorsement of Kamala Harris as his successor: 79% of Republicans somewhat or strongly disagree with the endorsement, while 90% of Democrats strongly or somewhat agree.
More think that Biden’s decision to end his campaign will benefit the Democrats more than Republicans
Overall, nearly half (45%) of American adults think that the president’s decision not to seek a second term will help the Democratic Party, 16 points higher than the 29% of adults who think this will ultimately benefit the Republican Party. One in four (24%) foresee no impact on the upcoming election.
- Democrats are more optimistic about Biden’s decision: 77% of adults identifying as a Democrat or leaning Democrat think it will benefit their party, significantly more than the 12% who think this will help the Republicans.
- Republicans are less optimistic: half (49%) say this will help the Republican party, while 22% believe this will benefit Democrats.
A sizeable minority of Democrats remain uncertain about Kamala Harris’ chances against Donald Trump in the upcoming election
One in five (20%) Democrats believe that Donald Trump would win the presidential election if Kamala Harris were the Democratic nominee, while 78% are confident she would win. Republicans are much more united in their support for Trump: 92% believe Trump would defeat Harris, with only 7% thinking Harris would win.
Americans are divided on the impact of Kamala Harris’ gender and ethnic background on her chances of becoming president
About one in three (31%) Americans believe that being a woman would help Kamala’s chances of becoming president, slightly lower than those who think her gender would have no impact (34%) or a negative impact (33%). Both men and women have similar views on how her gender might help (32% and 30%, respectively) or harm (31% and 35%) her chances.
There is more optimism about Kamala Harris’ racial and ethnic background: more people think that being Black and Indian American will help rather than hurt her chances of becoming president (32% helps a lot/a little vs. 24% harms a lot/a little).
- White Americans are the most likely to believe her ethnicity will boost her chances (36%), compared to Black Americans (29%), Hispanics (24%), and Asians or Asian Americans (26%).
- Conversely, Black Americans are the most likely to think that her ethnicity will negatively impact her candidacy (32%), followed by Hispanics (27%), Asians or Asian Americans (25%), and white Americans (22%).
- White Democrats and white Republicans share similar sentiment on how much her race will help (36% and 38% respectively), but white Democrats are much more likely than white Republicans to think that her race will harm Harris’ presidential chances (38% and 9% respectively). Half of Republicans (52%) think her ethnicity has no impact, compared with just 25% of Democrats.
Americans think Harris will have a better chance of winning with a white male running mate, while more think that choosing a woman will hurt her chances
Nearly half of Americans (45%) think that having a white man as Kamala Harris’ vice presidential running mate will have no particular impact on her chances this fall, four in ten (40%) believe such a choice would improve her chances. Only 11% think that this will worsen her chances.
The sentiment is nearly the opposite when it comes to choosing a woman as her running mate: only one in six (16%) of Americans think that having a female running mate will improve Harris’ chances of winning, compared to 42% who believe it would worsen her chances and 39% who think it would have no impact.
Read more about our polling methodology here.
Click through all the results in the interactive toplines below:
